Law #10: Developer posts are valuable as long as what they post has value. It’s great to allow for transparency and open communication between fans and your development team, but it is only valuable as long as what the team posts is useful. The Signal/Noise ratio doesn’t only apply to members of the community, it applies to the company as well.

Law #11: Never announce something before you’re 100% sure it’s going to happen. If it’s something very minor, it’s often okay to mention that you are thinking about doing it, but always be clear that it isn’t a sure thing. If it’s something major, don’t even go that far, or people will expect it to come to fruition even if you indicate that it may not.

Law #12: Never lie to your community. Honesty is the gateway to trust. It is better not to answer if you aren’t sure, and it is better to tell the hard truth even if players aren’t going to like it. They will respect you and your company more for your honesty.

Law #13: Never try to mask a negative as a positive. A nerf is a nerf, a buff is a buff. Players are smart. You can’t fool them into thinking something is a good thing if it isn’t. If something that players perceive overall as negative has positives, feel free to highlight them, but don’t pretend that everything is pie and cake if it isn’t.

Law #14: “A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it” – Kay, Men in Black. Build relationships with individuals, and realize that an individual can be reasoned with. People are smart. Treat members of your community as individuals, not just as a faceless crowd.

Law #15: Encourage and reward constructive contributions from community members. Whether positive or negative, acknowledge and thank players who provide constructive feedback, organization, and sanity to your community.

To see the rest, check out the page: http://www.nerfbat.com/laws-communities/

Update: The Saga Continues…

1. Mythos will change hands again. I want this game to come out, because I was having a lot of fun in beta, but I’m not confident it will ever see the light of day.
2. Blizzard will announce its next MMO. It will not take place in any of their existing IPs, and will not be fantasy.
3. Mortal Online will launch. It will be more successful (subscriber numbers) than Darkfall. The main initial complaint will be “too much lag.”
4. Jumpgate Evolution will launch. It will create a distinct split in style of space MMO from EVE (primarily due to the combat pacing). The main initial complaint will be “too much lag.”
5. Alganon will announce that it is closing its doors. Old school Horizons fans (do I still count?) will be sad for David Allen.

Those are my predictions for 2010. Not many this year, but they should all be measurable.

Original Post: MMO Predictions for 2009

1. Worlds.com will fail to enforce its patent against NCSoft, and will not receive an out-of-court settlement. This prediction is almost more of a wish than a prediction, because it could spell major danger for MMOs as a whole if it goes through. [Verdict: So far, so good. Hopefully they never do. 1/1]
2. The Chronicles of Spellborn will come out in North America to mixed reviews, but will maintain a fairly steady playerbase throughout the year (no major uptake of players when it comes out, but no major bleeds either). In short, it will be successful enough to stay live. [Verdict: Seems about right. 2/2]
3. Turbine will attempt something major such as the introduction of microtransactions to improve the profitability of Dungeons & Dragons Online. [Verdict: Nailed that one. And it seems to be working. 3/3]
4. Aion will come out just before the year’s end, and will do extremely well initially. It will eventually prove itself one of the more successful MMOs in the US and Europe (top 5) 6-12 months after launch.[Verdict: Hard to say for certain. The first half is right. Half point. 3.5/4]
5. All Points Bulletin will not come out in 2009, and each announced release date and/or delay will cause a minor surge in GTA IV playtime (well, at least mine). But, APB will not be canceled in 2009 either. [Verdict: Correct. The first half, at least. I'm not willing to research if it increased GTA IV playtime. 4.5/5]
6. Jumpgate Evolution will launch, and will go somewhat ignored by the MMO community despite being one of few space MMOs available. After the initial rumblings about NetDevil being the developer of Auto Assault so this game must be doomed to fail, we will see a steady increase in its userbase as space fans who aren’t in love with the complexity of EVE flock to the game in reluctant trickles. JGE will be a success! [Verdict: Doh. I wanted it to come out! 4.5/6]
7. EA will announce a sports MMO hub from which players can use a single avatar in multiple EA Sports titles. This hub will include social locations in addition to gameplay spaces, and will be frequented by more NHL 2010 gamers than Madden 2010 players. [Verdict: No announcement yet. 4.5/7]
8. Hero’s Journey, after many years of development, will continue to quietly disappear until gamers notice, then a controversy will erupt about its alleged phantom cancellation. Later in the year, its death with be officially confirmed. [Verdict: I'm giving myself half a point here even though no cancellation has been mentioned. 5/8 .]
9. We will see even more MMO companies announce that they plan on using the microtransaction model. At least 25% of these companies should not be using the microtransaction model, as their MMOs are focused too much on player achievement to be supported this way.[Verdict: The first half is right. The second might be, but I'm lazy. 5.5/9]
10. Darkfall will launch. It will be in a terrible, unfinished state. This will cause many to claim that its failure was due to PvP being a super-niche market, and all games of this type will fail. It will also cause many to claim that it was yet another poor implementation of a solid model, and that the naysayers shouldn’t dismiss PvP MMOs until a good one comes out. [Verdict: Sadly, this was a gimme. 6.5/10]
11. LEGO Universe will come out, and will gain a large, fairly young playerbase. The average age for the game will remain at around 16 years old, with most players between 10 and 13, but others (like me) reliving their LEGO days at an older age. This game will prove to turn NetDevil’s fortunes for the better, legitimizing game development in Colorado once again! [Verdict: This was a hope. I was wrong. 6.5/11]

6.5/11 (59%). That would be a failing grade in a class, but I’d be considered MMOstradamus in some circles. This year, I’ll probably come up with fewer predictions. Those should be forthcoming in the next week.

1. Worlds.com will fail to enforce its patent against NCSoft, and will not receive an out-of-court settlement. This prediction is almost more of a wish than a prediction, because it could spell major danger for MMOs as a whole if it goes through.
2. The Chronicles of Spellborn will come out in North America to mixed reviews, but will maintain a fairly steady playerbase throughout the year (no major uptake of players when it comes out, but no major bleeds either). In short, it will be successful enough to stay live.
3. Turbine will attempt something major such as the introduction of microtransactions to improve the profitability of Dungeons & Dragons Online.
4. Aion will come out just before the year’s end, and will do extremely well initially. It will eventually prove itself one of the more successful MMOs in the US and Europe (top 5) 6-12 months after launch.
5. All Points Bulletin will not come out in 2009, and each announced release date and/or delay will cause a minor surge in GTA IV playtime (well, at least mine). But, APB will not be canceled in 2009 either.
6. Jumpgate Evolution will launch, and will go somewhat ignored by the MMO community despite being one of few space MMOs available. After the initial rumblings about NetDevil being the developer of Auto Assault so this game must be doomed to fail, we will see a steady increase in its userbase as space fans who aren’t in love with the complexity of EVE flock to the game in reluctant trickles. JGE will be a success!
7. EA will announce a sports MMO hub from which players can use a single avatar in multiple EA Sports titles. This hub will include social locations in addition to gameplay spaces, and will be frequented by more NHL 2010 gamers than Madden 2010 players.
8. Hero’s Journey, after many years of development, will continue to quietly disappear until gamers notice, then a controversy will erupt about its alleged phantom cancellation. Later in the year, its death with be officially confirmed.
9. We will see even more MMO companies announce that they plan on using the microtransaction model. At least 25% of these companies should not be using the microtransaction model, as their MMOs are focused too much on player achievement to be supported this way.
10. Darkfall will launch. It will be in a terrible, unfinished state. This will cause many to claim that its failure was due to PvP being a super-niche market, and all games of this type will fail. It will also cause many to claim that it was yet another poor implementation of a solid model, and that the naysayers shouldn’t dismiss PvP MMOs until a good one comes out.
11. LEGO Universe will come out, and will gain a large, fairly young playerbase. The average age for the game will remain at around 16 years old, with most players between 10 and 13, but others (like me) reliving their LEGO days at an older age. This game will prove to turn NetDevil’s fortunes for the better, legitimizing game development in Colorado once again!

We’ll see how I do. I’m predicting I’ll get somewhere around 50% accuracy on these predictions… Including the prediction in the previous sentence. Oh, and feel free to do my work for me and tell me if I was right about my 2008 predictions. Happy New Year!